56 percent won’t ever use a nursing home

12 percent will use a nursing home for less than 3 months

9 percent will use a nursing home for 3 months to a year

15 percent will use a nursing home for 1 year to 5 years, and

8 percent will use a nursing home for 5 years or longer.

For another perspective, according to data from actuarial consulting firm Milliman & Robertson, the probability of a 45-year-old male having a qualifying nursing home admission is about 1 in 1000, but for an 85-year-old male it’s 60 in 1000. Separately, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported in mid-2002 that nearly half of all men and women age 85 and older had Alzheimer’s Disease or other forms of dementia.

But if you’re under 85 it doesn’t mean you should ignore the topic of long-term care insurance because

You might already be unable to buy long-term care insurance. Wakely Consulting Group, an actuarial firm, studied applicants for long-term care insurance in 2003-2004; the findings: 11 percent in their 50s were rejected, 19 percent in their 60s were rejected, and 43 percent in their 70s were rejected.

A Milliman actuary reported an estimate that 15 to 25 percent of the over-65 age group are uninsurable for long-term care.

A report from the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation indicates that there are over five million people ages 18-64 who need some type of long-term care.

The latest data from the National Center for Health Statistics (for 1999) reported that roughly 160,000 of the people living in nursing homes were under age 65 (nearly 10 percent of the total). Of those receiving home health care services, roughly 400,000 were under 65 (about 30 percent of the total).